The Purpose of This Project Is to Construct a Model to Attempt to Forecast the Interim Earnings of Harley Davidson

The purpose of this project is to construct a model to attempt to forecast the interim earnings of Harley Davidson. Harley Davidson, Inc. manufactures premium motorcycles, recreational vehicles, specialized commercial vehicles and parts and accessories. The Company's Motorcycle Division manufactures and markets heavyweight touring and custom motorcycles and a broad range of related products including riding apparel, motorcycle accessories and replacement parts. My purpose is to construct a model using six years worth of historical data and try to predict the earnings for the following year. I will use the interim earnings for the years 1989-1994, and divide them into 24 equal quarters. The model uses a quantative forecasting method called the Multiplicative Time Series Model. It is based on the assumption that there are four factors that have influenced the time series in the past. They are:
1. Trend
2. Cycle
3. Season
4. Irregular
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