Macroeconomics Forecasting

Consumer Price Index while in 2003 the GDP Price Index will have 1.9% change and 2.5% change in the Consumer Price Index
OMB has projected unemployment rates of 5.9 percent and 5.5 percent in calendar year 2002 and 2003. The 2002 rate is 0.2 percentage point lower than both CBO and 0.1 percentage point lower than FRBP and the 2003 rate is the same as that projected by FRBP and 0.4 percentage point lower than CBO.
FRBP has projected lower short-term interest rates than CBO and OMB. Three-month Treasury bill rates are projected at 2% in calendar year 2002 and 3.5% in 2003, while CBO forecasts 2.2 percent and 4.5%. OMB'S 2002 forecast matches that of CBO while its 2003 forecast matches that of FRBP. The ten-month 2002 Treasury bill rate are the highest in FRBP's forecast of 5.2% followed by OMB's forecast of 5.1% and CBO's forecast of 5%. However, for the year 2003, FRBP and CBO have projected the ten-month treasury rate to be 5.5% and OMB stands the same as its 2002 projections.
OMB is more pessimistic than CBO in some of its economic assumptions. However, its budget projections are not necessarily more cautious.
The following two tables compare the national forecasts of the United States between the three financial institutions for the years 2002 and 2003.
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